Afghanistan’s Election Is About Obama’s War
Aug 20, 2009 Long March
The Daily Beast
The stakes in Thursday’s Afghan election are much higher than who’ll be elected president, says Bruce Riedel—it’s also a referendum on Obama’s war, the Taliban’s strength, and even Pakistan’s allegiance.
Thursday’s election in Afghanistan is a critical early test of America’s new strategy in the war. It is a crucial challenge and opportunity for the United States, NATO, and our other allies, as well as the Afghan national government and army. Yet it is also a challenge and opportunity for the Taliban and al Qaeda. The stakes are much higher than who will be elected president of Afghanistan for the next five years.
The United States and NATO have had more than six months to prepare for Thursday. Additional troops from the U.S., U.K., and other allies have been sent to Afghanistan to help ensure a credible election day with the minimum possible violence and intimidation. Major campaigns have been launched to try to open parts of the country, like Helmand Province, from the grip of the Taliban to allow voting. The challenge is to pull off an election that has sufficient voter turnout in spite of the Taliban’s threats to be credible. An army of international observers and the media will be on hand to witness.
The opportunity is also present for a second chance. If the elections come off, despite violence and threats, and if the Afghan people judge them to be reasonably credible—not necessarily entirely free and fair, but legitimate and credible—the Afghan government and the NATO mission will have gotten an important boost of confidence and legitimacy they badly need. After almost eight years of drift, a newly elected government that is seen as legitimate offers a chance for President Obama’s strategy to go forward with an Afghan buy-in.
In NATO’s capitals an election also will buy time with European, Canadian, and American constituencies that are growing war weary. Politicians on both sides of the Atlantic will be able to point to something tangible as a sign of progress.
For Mullah Omar and the Taliban, the election is a chance to prove their strength and show who controls what parts of the country. The Taliban leader has promised to cut off the fingers of those who vote, and his fighters are trying to assassinate candidates, intimidate voters, and disrupt the process. Five years ago, Omar also denounced the election, but he was largely powerless to affect it. Now he will show his power.
But the Taliban also is challenged. It needs to show it is not just a Pashtun insurgency and that it can operate on a national scale like the Mujahideen operated when they fought the Soviets in the 1980s. This means disrupting the process in Tajik, Uzbek, and Hazari Shia towns and villages, not just in the Pashtun south and east.
The good news is this election has become a horse race. Six months ago it looked like President Hamid Karzai was going to coast to re-election. None of his opponents looked capable of a real challenge; indeed, it looked more like a coronation than an election. Karzai may still win in the first round, but Abdullah Abdullah and other candidates have given him a run for it. That alone should help make this election more credible. If there is a second-round runoff, all bets are off.
Tags: Afghan poll, afghanistan, Hamid Karzai, obama, taliban, US
Corruption fears over Afghan poll
Aug 19, 2009 News & Events
Afghanistan’s presidential election has been beset by fraud and corruption, a BBC investigation suggests.
“Everybody knows the United States will choose the next president of Afghanistan,” said Shah Rahman Afzali. “We should not participate in sham elections.”
Afzali is not an illiterate farmer, indoctrinated by the Taliban about “puppet presidents” and “infidel elections”, but a student at Herat University. And he is by no means alone in his views.
Voting cards are being sold openly and candidates have been offering thousands of dollars in bribes for votes.
The findings came as campaigning closed before Thursday’s election, in which incumbent President Hamid Karzai faces 41 challengers.
A senior Afghan Independent Election Commission official denied to the BBC that voting cards were being sold.
The allegations came as militants launched a flurry of deadly attacks across Afghanistan on Tuesday, in the wake of their threats to disrupt the election.
Multiple voting cards
An Afghan working for the BBC went undercover in Kabul to investigate reports that voting cards were being sold and was offered 1,000 cards, each costing around £6 ($10).
Other vendors made similar offers.
It is impossible to know how many voting cards have been sold in such a manner, says the BBC’s Ian Pannell in Kabul, but there have been a number of arrests.
Multiple voting cards are reported to have been issued to some individuals, while government workers have actively and illegally campaigned for candidates, says our correspondent.
An influential tribal leader in the north of the country said he had been offered thousands of dollars by campaign teams in exchange for delivering large blocks of votes.
Separately, an independent monitoring group said it had shown evidence of corruption to election officials, but they had not acted on the information.
However, a senior Afghan Independent Election Commission official, Daud-Ali Najafi, dismissed claims of voting fraud.
He said: “We totally reject the allegations that cards are being bought. Even if one is bought it can’t be used. The person who owns the card must vote him or herself.”
Western officials have conceded that the election will be flawed but say a flawed election is still better than no vote at all.
Mr Karzai, who is seen as the frontrunner, and his two main rivals held their last rallies of the campaign on Monday.
The current president was forced to defend his links with notorious warlord, Gen Abdul Rashid Dostum, during a TV debate.
The election is taking place amid an upsurge in violence – with a survey by the BBC’s Afghan service suggesting the government has little or no control of 30% of the country.
A spokesman for Mr Karzai said the government did not agree with the findings, saying there were security problems in just a few districts.
